03 Feb
SOUTHEAST Asia will experience above-average rainfall until next year due to the effects of the La Niña phenomenon, according to the latest World Meteorological Organization report.
The WMO report said this year's La Niña "is expected to be moderate to strong", affecting temperatures, precipitation and storm patterns in many parts of the world.
The last time there was a strong event was in 2010-2011, followed by a moderate event in 2011-2012.
La Niña is often associated with wet conditions across large parts of South East Asia, Australia and the latest seasonal outlook is consistent with historical La Niña conditions.
La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Niño, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The natural weather phenomenon, known as the cool sister of the better-known El Niño, occurs every few years. It is characterized by cooler-than-normal waters in the Pacific Ocean, causing dry weather in some parts of the globe and heavy rainfall in others.
Past La Niñas have created significant market volatility and raised prices for many foods, and the current edition is already pushing up prices of crops such as corn and reducing supplies of pineapples and mangos. This event has the potential to last till the Northern Hemisphere spring, according to government forecasters in the U.S., Japan and Australia who monitor sea conditions.
So far, dry conditions have been reported in Brazil, Argentina, and parts of the U.S., and bouts of excessive rain in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia.
La Niña 2020 has evolved quicker and with stronger intensity than many leading climate models predicted and the phenomenon the “primary supply-side wild card” for agricultural markets going into 2021.
It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors that drive global and regional climate patterns. No two La Niña or El Niño events are the same, and their effects on regional climates can vary depending on the time of year and other factors. Therefore, decision makers should always monitor latest seasonal forecasts for the most up to date information.
