EL NIÑO and La Niña are opposing climate patterns that disrupt the usual weather conditions, collectively forming the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. These phenomena exert global influences on climate, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies, with durations typically spanning nine to 12 months, although instances of longer persistence have been observed. While occurring every two to seven years on average, their schedule remains unpredictable, with El Niño generally manifesting more frequently than La Niña.
Currently present in the tropical Pacific, El Niño is displaying signs of attenuation in its atmospheric component. Conditions are anticipated to shift to ENSO-neutral between April and June 2024, with a 55 per cent likelihood of La Niña emerging from June to August 2024. El Niño’s warmer waters can displace the Pacific jet stream southward, influencing temperatures in different regions.
Myanmar is currently grappling with the impacts of El Niño, witnessing a gradual rise in day temperatures. According to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, the effects will be felt in Mon State, Kayin State, Ayeyawady, and Yangon regions in March 2024, with daytime temperatures increasing. However, night temperatures in early March are expected to remain relatively cool.
El Niño’s impact on temperatures will be particularly noticeable in Kayin and Mon States, Bago, Ayeyawady, Yangon, and Magway regions, reaching 38°-39°. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Tropical Pacific Ocean near the Equator and atmospheric conditions are currently moderate, according to Numerical Weather Prediction models from the International Meteorological Agency, projecting a sustained moderate El Niño condition throughout March 2024.
Despite the high temperatures associated with El Niño, individuals are advised to seek shelter and take measures to alleviate its impacts on their well-being. Authorities should emphasize water storage for consumption and agricultural needs, while rescue teams must conduct frequent rehearsals to be prepared for potential emergencies. Healthcare services should also be organized to cater to patients during this critical period. Not only government servants but also volunteers always have to be ready to save life and property of the people without delay.
Recognizing the strength in unity, the people of Myanmar, with their valuable experiences in overcoming severe weather challenges, are urged to collaborate in defying the impacts of El Niño this summer. Through collective efforts, a safe and secure society in Myanmar can be shaped to withstand and adapt to the challenges posed by these climatic phenomena.
